Milly Metrics
What we measure

Three numbers that
actually move your odds.

Milly Metrics reduces your whole book to three scores you can act on — one for the player, one for the team, one for the portfolio. Here's what each one means and what goes into it.

Player UpsideTeam UpsideEffective Teams
Measure 01 · the player

Player Upside Score

How high a player's best weeks get — his real ceiling, not his floor. Best ball only counts your top scorers each week, so the number that matters isn't the average, it's the spike. Every player is scored 0–100 within his own position, so a WR is measured against WRs and an RB against RBs.

How to read it: higher = more league-winning ceiling for the position. It's built from real weekly scoring, not name value — so it surfaces the players whose tops win weeks.
See an example →
WHAT GOES IN
40%
Ceiling — how high his weekly peaks reach
40%
Spike magnitude — size of his boom weeks
20%
Upside deviation — how often the boom shows
RANK
Scored within position, 0–100
WHAT GOES IN
BASE
Combined player upside on the roster
+/–
Stacks & same-game correlation
TILT
Construction fit (RB/WR/QB/TE shape)
TILT
Closing-line value & playoff weeks
Measure 02 · the team

Team Upside Score

Every roster you drafted, graded 0–100 on how likely it is to win a tournament — not just cash. It starts from the combined player upside on the roster, then layers in the things that decide best-ball titles: your stacks, your build, closing-line value, and the playoff-week schedule. 50 is an average team drafted at ADP; higher means further above the field.

How to read it: 50 = the market. Your book today averages in the mid-60s — it beats roughly two-thirds of ADP-drafted teams. The score tells you which of your rosters carry the title equity.
See an example →
Measure 03 · the portfolio

Effective Teams

How many of your entries are truly independent title shots. Two nearly identical teams aren't two shots at the money — they're one shot you paid for twice. Effective Teams strips out that redundancy and tells you your real number of swings at the tournament.

How to read it: if your 78 entries behave like ~52 independent shots, correlation is costing you ~26 teams of redundancy. Raising Effective Teams — not just raising entry count — is what actually lifts your championship odds.
WHAT GOES IN
INPUT
Your entry count
DISCOUNT
Correlation across the book
p
Per-team title-tier rate
FORMULA
E = ln(1−reach) ÷ ln(1−p)
See the numbers on a real book

Measured, not guessed.