Goal: To maximize the number of effective upside teams.

What's more likely to win a best ball tournament — 100 high-upside teams that are identical, or 100 high-upside teams that are highly differentiated? Both have 100 teams, but the differentiated book clearly gives you the best chance to win. That's the idea behind Effective teams.

Correlation has its price. It's great to have takes — but too strong of a take can significantly reduce your probability of winning. And best ball is a game of probabilities.

teams you've played

effective (independent) teams

87%

championship reach

3.2

expected title-tier teams / yr

Effective teams

how many of your 89 are truly independent shots

56 of 89 — your 89 teams behave like only 56 independent title shots, or Effective teams. Correlation (shared players, repeated stacks, the same TB, JAX, DEN concentration) is costing you about 33 teams of redundancy. Two identical teams are one shot, not two.

Where you're over-correlated

the impact of your biggest bets on your title-tier teams · click any row

Your top team exposures

These offenses recur across your book. Click one to see how your expected title-tier count swings when it runs hot vs cold — the more of your teams lean on it, the bigger the swing.

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if it runs cold

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expected
normally

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if it runs hot

Your top stacks

Repeated player-pair stacks are your most concentrated bets. Click one to see the same upside/downside on your title-tier count.

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if it runs cold

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expected
normally

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if it runs hot

Diversification curve

championship reach as teams are added, best-first

Added best-first, you reach 69% with 10 teams and 87% with all 89. It flattens at the knee (~#24) — past there, each new team is largely a clone adding little. That flat tail is your redundancy.

Your Recommendations

Plan your book to maximize effective teams

Set a target number of teams and get a personalized, most-diversifying board — the top teams, stacks, and players to prioritize in your next drafts.

Open Your Recommendations →

Your real portfolio. 89 Underdog lineups · projections = Fantasy Points half-PPR · volatility & correlations = nflverse 2021–2025 · field = ADP-drafted sim.