Your Recommendations — Milly Metrics

Your Read

what your book is telling you

AI · grounded in your numbers

Your combined book — the read.

Your 117-team combined Underdog + DraftKings book beats the market — your teams average an Upside Score of 57 against the field's 50. Correlation is the story: your 117 entries behave like just 75 independent title shots, about 42 teams of redundancy, and you lean heavily on JAX (33% of your book). Book CLV is -1.8, so you're reaching slightly on price. Within the book, your DraftKings teams (62) grade higher than your Underdog teams (58). This blends every team you've drafted across Underdog (18 rds, 0.5 PPR) and DraftKings (20 rds, full PPR). Priorities from here: diversify away from JAX to raise your effective team count; fade your biggest exposure (Parker Washington 44%); add under-owned upside like Jahmyr Gibbs (9% owned, 100 upside).

Under the hood

the metrics behind each score · your real numbers

Build Score

how you built

Draft Capital38

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Lineup Depth56

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Stack Quality, Reg. Season56

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Stack Quality, Playoffs66

reg-season + Week 17 · top third = 67+

Exposure Score

how it's spread

Exposure Shape69

round-by-round exposure balance · higher = better

Exposure Availability50

fair · players live into the finals · higher = better

Exposure Uniquenesscalibrating

unlocks as the community grows

Upside Score

ceiling you drafted

Rounds 1–578

avg player upside · weight 15% · top third = 67+

Rounds 6–1065

avg player upside · weight 20% · top third = 67+

Rounds 11–1544

avg player upside · weight 30% · top third = 67+

Rounds 16–1832

avg player upside · weight 35% · top third = 67+

Book CLV-1.8

vs closing ADP · target ≥ 0

Your draft plan

going forward

Teams to target

top offenses you're under-exposed to · your share

1#6 offBAL5%

2#2 offLAR6%

3#4 offDAL6%

4#5 offBUF6%

5#3 offDET9%

6#8 offNE9%

7#9 offKC9%

8#1 offCIN11%

9#14 offMIN14%

10#16 offWAS14%

Show all 10 ▾

ADD

BAL — you need shares

Projected as the #6 offense, and you're at 5% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.

+ Upside+ Build

ADD

LAR — you need shares

Projected as the #2 offense, and you're at 6% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.

+ Upside+ Build

FADE

You're over-exposed to Parker Washington — 44% of your book

That's above the 30% cap for a Round 5 pick. An early-round bust sinks every team it's on at once — leave Parker Washington off your next builds to pull back toward the cap.

+ Exposure

FIX

Add a finals stack — Josh Allen + D.J. Moore

Only 72% of your teams carry a Week 15-17 game stack. A high-ceiling finals stack lifts your weakest gauge and your finals conversion at once.

+ Build+ Upside

FIX

Availability risk: Eli Stowers — 37% of your book

You're heavy on a late-round TE whose availability (health × play-time) sits below the field at that ADP. Same position, same draft cost, higher availability: swap toward Jeremy Ruckert — it lifts Exposure Availability and leaves your exposure shape unchanged.

+ Exposure

FIX

Availability risk: Jonah Coleman — 27% of your book

You're heavy on a late-round RB whose availability (health × play-time) sits below the field at that ADP. Same position, same draft cost, higher availability: swap toward Woody Marks — it lifts Exposure Availability and leaves your exposure shape unchanged.

+ Exposure

↑ If you draft the 4 recommended teams

Build Score 56 → 70Exposure Score 60 Upside Score 49 Finals chance 20.7% → 17.3%

Real projection — the recommended teams are drafted into your book and the full season is re-simulated.

Stacks to target

by leverage · your exposure

1Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned

2Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews0% owned

3Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze0% owned

4Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton0% owned

5Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan0% owned

6Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert0% owned

7Lamar Jackson + Rashod Bateman0% owned

8Trevor Lawrence + Brian Thomas0% owned

9Lamar Jackson + Ja'Kobi Lane0% owned

10Josh Allen + Dawson Knox0% owned

Show all 10 ▾

Players to target

by leverage · your exposure

1RBKyren Williams1%

2RBJosh Jacobs5%

3RBJavonte Williams0% owned

4WRTetairoa McMillan3%

5TETrey McBride4%

6WRDavante Adams2%

7WRRashee Rice6%

8RBBreece Hall5%

9RBTravis Etienne Jr.2%

10WRGarrett Wilson3%

11WRDeVonta Smith3%

12WRJameson Williams2%

13RBJadarian Price3%

14RBJeremiyah Love13%

15TETyler Warren6%

16WRZay Flowers13%

17RBQuinshon Judkins2%

18WRChris Olave1%

19TEColston Loveland16%

20QBJosh Allen4%

Show all 20 ▾

Target and Fade Board

where to lean in and where to pull back, by draft round

▲ Target — under-exposed, lean in▼ Fade — over your round cap

Rd 1-2

—

clear

Rd 3-4

RBKyren Williams1% own

RBJosh Jacobs5% own

RBJavonte Williams0% own

WRTetairoa McMillan3% own

clear

Rd 5-6

WRDavante Adams2% own

WRJameson Williams2% own

RBJadarian Price3% own

TETyler Warren6% own

WRParker Washington44% > 30% cap

Rd 7-8

TESam LaPorta8% own

RBTony Pollard0% own

WRMichael Wilson0% own

WRDk Metcalf0% own

clear

Rd 9-12

TEKyle Pitts3% own

TEDallas Goedert0% own

WRMichael Pittman Jr.2% own

TEHarold Fannin11% own

clear

Rd 13+

TEHunter Henry3% own

WRCalvin Ridley0% own

RBTyjae Spears3% own

WRJerry Jeudy2% own

clear

For a deeper dive into your Targets and Fades, click here →

Playoffs

weighted finals (Wk15/16/17)

15-17

The full finals run

stacks that cover all three weeks

Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned

BUF finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews0% owned

BAL finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze0% owned

CHI finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

WK 17

Championship week

highest-ceiling title-week games

PHI vs. SFWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

BAL vs. CINWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

DET vs. CHIWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

Your real portfolio. 117 All lineups · three rings scored on metric map v3 · volatility & correlations = nflverse 2021-2025 · field = ADP-drafted sim · what-if = live re-simulation.