Milly Metrics Underdog · 89 entries
Your portfolio · three scores
58
Construction
How you built
64
Upside
Ceiling you drafted
80
Diversification
How it's spread
65+ strong45-64 fairunder 45 weak
Your Read
what your book is telling you
AI · grounded in your numbers
Your Underdog book — the read.

Your 89-team Underdog book beats the market — your teams average an Upside Score of 64 against the field's 50. Correlation is the story: your 89 entries behave like just 56 independent title shots, about 33 teams of redundancy, and you lean heavily on JAX (33% of your book). Book CLV is -2.3, so you're reaching slightly on price. Underdog runs 18 rounds at 0.5 PPR and rewards ceiling — its winning shape skews ~3 QB / 5 RB / 7 WR / 3 TE (5-RB, 3-TE). Priorities from here: diversify away from JAX to raise your effective team count; fade your biggest exposure (Parker Washington 42%); add under-owned upside like Jahmyr Gibbs (9% owned, 100 upside).

Under the hood

4 metrics per score · your real numbers
58
Construction
how you built
Draft Capital46
percentile vs field · top third = 67+
Lineup Shape60
percentile vs field · top third = 67+
Stacking Shape57
percentile vs field · top third = 67+
Stacking Breadth63
reg-season + Week 17 · top third = 67+
64
Upside
ceiling you drafted
Upside Team %96%
of teams clear the ceiling bar
Book CLV-2.3
vs closing ADP · target ≥ 0
Sim: Playoff Probability100%
book · 23%/entry · 20.6 expected
Sim: Final Probability86.8%
book · 3.57%/entry · 3.18 expected
80
Diversification
how it's spread
Effective Team %56 / 89
independent bets · higher = better
Uniqueness vs. Field94%
low-owned players & combos · higher = better
Player: Optimized ExposureHHI 0.01
Parker Washington 42% · within round caps = better
Team: Optimized ExposureHHI 0.04
JAX 33% · lower = more spread

Your draft plan

going forward
Teams to target
top offenses you're under-exposed to · your share
1#12 offBAL4%
2#2 offDAL6%
3#11 offBUF6%
4#3 offLAR7%
5#1 offCIN9%
6#16 offNO9%
7#8 offKC10%
8#13 offWAS10%
9#4 offDET11%
10#5 offMIN11%
Show all 10 ▾
ADD
BAL — you need shares
Projected as the #12 offense, and you're at 4% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.
+ Upside+ Construction
ADD
DAL — you need shares
Projected as the #2 offense, and you're at 6% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.
+ Upside+ Construction
FADE
You're over-exposed to Parker Washington — 42% of your book
That's above the 30% cap for a Round 5 pick. An early-round bust sinks every team it's on at once — leave Parker Washington off your next builds to pull back toward the cap.
+ Diversification
FIX
Add a finals stack — Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers
Only 67% of your teams carry a Week 15-17 game stack. A high-ceiling finals stack lifts your weakest gauge and your finals conversion at once.
+ Construction+ Upside
↑ If you draft the 4 recommended teams
Construction 58 → 71Upside 64 → 65Diversification 80 Finals chance 86.8% → 88.6%
Real projection — the recommended teams are drafted into your book and the full season is re-simulated.
Stacks to target
by leverage · your exposure
1Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers0% owned
2Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned
3Tyler Shough + Chris Olave0% owned
4Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze0% owned
5Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid0% owned
6Trevor Lawrence + Brian Thomas0% owned
7Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton0% owned
8Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews0% owned
9Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan0% owned
10Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert0% owned
Show all 10 ▾
Players to target
by leverage · your exposure
1RBJosh Jacobs6%
2RBJavonte Williams0% owned
3RBKyren Williams0% owned
4TETrey McBride4%
5WRDeVonta Smith2%
6RBBreece Hall4%
7WRTetairoa McMillan3%
8WRDavante Adams2%
9WRRashee Rice8%
10RBTravis Etienne Jr.2%
11WRGarrett Wilson4%
12RBQuinshon Judkins1%
13RBDavid Montgomery3%
14TESam LaPorta7%
15WRZay Flowers15%
16TETucker Kraft12%
17RBJeremiyah Love16%
18WRRome Odunze4%
19WRChris Olave0% owned
20WRJameson Williams2%
Show all 20 ▾
Target and Fade Board
where to lean in and where to pull back, by draft round
▲ Target — under-exposed, lean in▼ Fade — over your round cap
Rd 1-2
—
clear
Rd 3-4
RBJosh Jacobs6% own
RBJavonte Williams0% own
RBKyren Williams0% own
TETrey McBride4% own
clear
Rd 5-6
WRDavante Adams2% own
RBQuinshon Judkins1% own
WRRome Odunze4% own
WRJameson Williams2% own
WRParker Washington42% > 30% cap
Rd 7-8
TESam LaPorta7% own
TETucker Kraft12% own
WRDk Metcalf0% own
WRJayden Reed6% own
clear
Rd 9-12
TETravis Kelce6% own
TEKyle Pitts3% own
TEDalton Kincaid2% own
TEDallas Goedert0% own
clear
Rd 13+
TEHunter Henry3% own
RBTyjae Spears3% own
TEKenyon Sadiq6% own
WRJauan Jennings1% own
clear
For a deeper dive into your Targets and Fades, click here →

Playoffs

weighted finals (Wk15/16/17)
15-17
The full finals run
stacks that cover all three weeks
Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers0% owned
BAL finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.
covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17
Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned
BUF finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.
covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17
Tyler Shough + Chris Olave0% owned
NO finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.
covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17
WK 17
Championship week
highest-ceiling title-week games
LV vs. ARIWk17 ceiling
Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.
title week · highest weight
DET vs. CHIWk17 ceiling
Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.
title week · highest weight
KC vs. LACWk17 ceiling
Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.
title week · highest weight
Your real portfolio. 89 Underdog lineups · three rings scored on metric map v3 · volatility & correlations = nflverse 2021-2025 · field = ADP-drafted sim · what-if = live re-simulation.