Exposure grades how your book is spread — so a bad beat on one player or one week can’t sink the whole portfolio. Two live sub-scores drive it: Exposure Shape (55%) and Availability (45%); Uniqueness is deferred until community ownership data exists. It all protects one thing — Independent Shots, the number of truly distinct title shots your teams add up to.
Exposure Shape
69score
Exposure Shape grades whether your bets are sized to their cost. The winning shape keeps bets small over expensive early picks (don’t swing hard where being wrong is costly) and takes bigger, more concentrated bets late, as draft-capital cost falls. Scored on an absolute 0–100 scale, not a percentile.
Early rounds are expensive to be wrong in — the field’s best books keep bets small and spread across rounds 1–2.
Late rounds are where conviction pays — the ideal takes bigger swings on your highest-conviction darts, where the cost of being wrong is low.
Graded on evenness, so the read holds whether you run 20 books or 200 — it can’t be gamed by volume.
Exposure Shape is the heaviest piece of the ring — 55%.
Are Your Bets Sized to the Cost? — gap by phase
EarlyR1–4+7bets too big
MiddleR5–10+3bets too big
LateR11+-4bets too small
◄ bets too small (under-betting)bets too big (over-betting) ►
How big your bets are each phase vs the ideal taper — small bets while picks are expensive, then bigger swings as draft-capital cost falls — shown as the gap only. Built on book-size-robust evenness, so it reads the same whether you run 20 books or 200. Right = bigger bets than the cost warrants; left = smaller. Your biggest gap is early — bets too big — you swing hard where picks are still expensive to get wrong.
Round by round — your bet size vs the rising ideal
The same read at every round, not just the three phases. The single-round spikes are individual big bets; the shaded band is the scoring tolerance. Above the dashed line = bigger bets than the cost warrants that round; below = smaller.
Round Exposure vs Caps
R110%
R220%
R319%
R424%
R544%
R69%
R727%
R820%
R921%
R1026%
R1121%
R1227%
R1313%
R1432%
R1511%
R1634%
R1710%
R1837%
your most-exposed player that roundround cap (25% R1–4 / 30% R5–8 / 35% R9–13 / 40% R14+)
A compliance read of your single most-exposed player each round against the round-tiered cap. Over the tick = over-exposed where picks are expensive. Your biggest breach is R5 at 44% vs a 30% cap (Parker Washington) — that's where you're over-exposed on an expensive pick.
Rounds 1–2
Most exposed
Ashton JeantyRB·R220%
Chase BrownRB·R218%
Malik NabersWR·R213%
Least exposed
Saquon BarkleyRB·R13%
Nico CollinsWR·R24%
George PickensWR·R24%
Rounds 3–8
Most exposed
Parker WashingtonWR·R544%
Makai LemonWR·R727%
Cam SkatteboRB·R424%
Least exposed
Chris OlaveWR·R31%
Kyren WilliamsRB·R31%
Lamar JacksonQB·R51%
Rounds 9+
Most exposed
Sean TuckerRB·R1837%
Eli StowersTE·R1837%
Emmett JohnsonRB·R1634%
Least exposed
Xavier HutchinsonWR·R181%
Caleb DouglasWR·R151%
David NjokuTE·R181%
Your top 3 and bottom 3 exposures in each round band (least-exposed = players you roster lightly). Early = spread wide; late = where the concentrated bets belong.
Your takeawayYour bets run too big early/middle, where picks are still expensive to get wrong and too small late, where the cheap darts invite conviction. On the round caps, only R5 breaches. Trimming a few over-owned early names and adding conviction to your best late darts moves this the most.
Availability
50score
Availability grades whether your players are alive and playing when the finals are decided. Research is clear: more “live” players in the championship weeks meaningfully lifts win odds. We score each player’s availability as injury risk (by position) × projected play-time.
A finals roster full of players on bye, benched, or hurt scores zero regardless of talent.
Availability = health × play-time — a self-calibrating read of who will actually be on the field.
The score weights your round-11+ picks 70% — that’s where contingency risk and the real decisions live.
Availability is 45% of the ring.
Availability by Round
R1-558
R6-1056
R11-1545
R16-2034
Availability (health × play-time, 0–90 scale) by round range. It falls off late (R16–20 ≈ 34) — exactly the rounds the score weights 70%.
Availability Tiers × Your Exposure (R11+)
High availability
28%7% avg exp
Mid
35%6% avg exp
Low availability
38%8% avg exp
Your R11+ players by availability tier, and your average exposure to each. Red flag: you're more exposed to the low-availability tier (8%) than the high one (7%) — concentrated contingency risk.
Availability-Risk Players (R11+)
Sean Tucker RB·R1837% exp19 avail
Eli Stowers TE·R1837% exp30 avail
Emmett Johnson RB·R1634% exp22 avail
Zach Charbonnet RB·R1432% exp33 avail
Jonah Coleman RB·R1227% exp22 avail
Highest-exposure, lowest-availability late players — the swap candidates. A same-position, same-ADP swap lifts Availability without touching your exposure shape.
Your Teams by Availability Risk
58%30%12%
Low riskMediumHigh risk
Share of your teams at high / medium / low availability risk across the roster. Representative — needs the per-team export.
Your takeaway38% of your late players sit in the low-availability tier, and you carry 8% average exposure to them. Swapping a few concentrated darts for same-ADP, higher-availability options lifts this without touching your shape.
Independent Shots
75/117effective
At the portfolio level, correlation quietly shrinks how many real bets you’ve made. You can nail construction, upside and availability on every team — but if two teams are near-identical, they win and lose together and count as one shot, not two.
Independent shots = how many truly distinct title shots your book adds up to after overlap.
Shared players, repeated stacks, and the same concentration are what collapse nominal teams into fewer real ones.
Independent shots × the simulation is what turns into your true odds of winning.
This is the payoff every other Exposure graphic is trying to protect.
75independent shots of 117 teams · 42 lost to overlap
20.7%finals reach
Independent shots × the simulation = your true title odds. Two identical teams are one shot — correlation costs you 42 of 117.
Your takeawayYour 117 teams behave like 75 independent shots — 42 lost to overlap. Differentiating your most-duplicated teams is the fastest way to add real, independent title equity.