Your Recommendations — Milly Metrics

Your Read

what your book is telling you

AI · grounded in your numbers

Your Underdog book — the read.

Your 92-team Underdog book beats the market — your teams average an Upside Score of 58 against the field's 50. Correlation is the story: your 92 entries behave like just 69 independent title shots, about 23 teams of redundancy, and you lean heavily on JAX (33% of your book). Book CLV is -2.2, so you're reaching slightly on price. That grades lower than your DraftKings book (62), so your DraftKings teams are the stronger side right now. Underdog runs 18 rounds at 0.5 PPR and rewards ceiling — its winning shape skews ~3 QB / 5 RB / 7 WR / 3 TE (5-RB, 3-TE). Priorities from here: diversify away from JAX to raise your effective team count; fade your biggest exposure (Parker Washington 42%); add under-owned upside like Jahmyr Gibbs (9% owned, 100 upside).

Under the hood

the metrics behind each score · your real numbers

Build Score

how you built

Draft Capital37

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Lineup Depth61

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Stack Quality, Reg. Season56

percentile vs field · top third = 67+

Stack Quality, Playoffs64

reg-season + Week 17 · top third = 67+

Exposure Score

how it's spread

Exposure Shape71

round-by-round exposure balance · higher = better

Exposure Availability54

fair · players live into the finals · higher = better

Exposure Uniquenesscalibrating

unlocks as the community grows

Upside Score

ceiling you drafted

Rounds 1–577

avg player upside · weight 15% · top third = 67+

Rounds 6–1068

avg player upside · weight 20% · top third = 67+

Rounds 11–1545

avg player upside · weight 30% · top third = 67+

Rounds 16–1829

avg player upside · weight 35% · top third = 67+

Book CLV-2.2

vs closing ADP · target ≥ 0

Your draft plan

going forward

Teams to target

top offenses you're under-exposed to · your share

1#6 offBAL4%

2#4 offDAL5%

3#2 offLAR7%

4#5 offBUF7%

5#8 offNE8%

6#1 offCIN9%

7#11 offKC10%

8#3 offDET11%

9#14 offMIN11%

10#10 offCHI12%

Show all 10 ▾

ADD

BAL — you need shares

Projected as the #6 offense, and you're at 4% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.

+ Upside+ Build

ADD

DAL — you need shares

Projected as the #4 offense, and you're at 5% exposure. Get some — ideally as a finals-week stack.

+ Upside+ Build

FADE

You're over-exposed to Parker Washington — 42% of your book

That's above the 30% cap for a Round 5 pick. An early-round bust sinks every team it's on at once — leave Parker Washington off your next builds to pull back toward the cap.

+ Exposure

FIX

Add a finals stack — Josh Allen + D.J. Moore

Only 68% of your teams carry a Week 15-17 game stack. A high-ceiling finals stack lifts your weakest gauge and your finals conversion at once.

+ Build+ Upside

FIX

Availability risk: Eli Stowers — 32% of your book

You're heavy on a late-round TE whose availability (health × play-time) sits below the field at that ADP. Same position, same draft cost, higher availability: swap toward Jeremy Ruckert — it lifts Exposure Availability and leaves your exposure shape unchanged.

+ Exposure

FIX

Availability risk: Jonah Coleman — 23% of your book

You're heavy on a late-round RB whose availability (health × play-time) sits below the field at that ADP. Same position, same draft cost, higher availability: swap toward Woody Marks — it lifts Exposure Availability and leaves your exposure shape unchanged.

+ Exposure

↑ If you draft the 4 recommended teams

Build Score 57 → 72Exposure Score 64 Upside Score 49 Finals chance 13.4% → 14.4%

Real projection — the recommended teams are drafted into your book and the full season is re-simulated.

Stacks to target

by leverage · your exposure

1Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned

2Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers0% owned

3Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid0% owned

4Tyler Shough + Chris Olave0% owned

5Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews0% owned

6Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze0% owned

7Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton0% owned

8Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert0% owned

9Bryce Young + Tetairoa McMillan0% owned

10Lamar Jackson + Rashod Bateman0% owned

Show all 10 ▾

Players to target

by leverage · your exposure

1RBKyren Williams0% owned

2RBJosh Jacobs5%

3TETrey McBride4%

4RBJavonte Williams0% owned

5WRTetairoa McMillan3%

6WRDavante Adams2%

7WRDeVonta Smith2%

8WRRashee Rice8%

9RBBreece Hall5%

10RBTravis Etienne Jr.2%

11WRGarrett Wilson4%

12WRJameson Williams2%

13TETyler Warren7%

14RBJadarian Price4%

15TEColston Loveland13%

16WRZay Flowers14%

17RBJeremiyah Love15%

18WRChris Olave0% owned

19RBQuinshon Judkins1%

20TESam LaPorta7%

Show all 20 ▾

Target and Fade Board

where to lean in and where to pull back, by draft round

▲ Target — under-exposed, lean in▼ Fade — over your round cap

Rd 1-2

—

clear

Rd 3-4

RBKyren Williams0% own

RBJosh Jacobs5% own

TETrey McBride4% own

RBJavonte Williams0% own

clear

Rd 5-6

WRDavante Adams2% own

WRJameson Williams2% own

TETyler Warren7% own

RBJadarian Price4% own

WRParker Washington42% > 30% cap

Rd 7-8

TESam LaPorta7% own

RBTony Pollard0% own

WRMichael Wilson0% own

WRJayden Reed5% own

clear

Rd 9-12

TEDallas Goedert0% own

TEKyle Pitts3% own

TEHarold Fannin10% own

WRMichael Pittman Jr.2% own

clear

Rd 13+

TEHunter Henry3% own

WRCalvin Ridley0% own

WRJerry Jeudy2% own

RBTyjae Spears3% own

clear

For a deeper dive into your Targets and Fades, click here →

Playoffs

weighted finals (Wk15/16/17)

15-17

The full finals run

stacks that cover all three weeks

Josh Allen + D.J. Moore0% owned

BUF finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

Lamar Jackson + Zay Flowers0% owned

BAL finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid0% owned

BUF finals-run stack — correlated across the finals weeks.

covers wk15 · wk16 · wk17

WK 17

Championship week

highest-ceiling title-week games

PHI vs. SFWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

BAL vs. CINWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

DET vs. CHIWk17 ceiling

Highest-ceiling Week 17 matchup you can stack for the title week.

title week · highest weight

Your real portfolio. 92 Underdog lineups · three rings scored on metric map v3 · volatility & correlations = nflverse 2021-2025 · field = ADP-drafted sim · what-if = live re-simulation.